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Contrasting effects of the onset of spring on reproductive success of Arctic-nesting geese
Nolet, B.A.; Schreven, K.H.T.; Boom, M.P.; Lameris, T.K. (2019). Contrasting effects of the onset of spring on reproductive success of Arctic-nesting geese. The Auk 137(1): ukz063. https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/auk/ukz063
In: The Auk: a quarterly journal of ornithology. The American Ornithologists' Union: Washington, D.C.. ISSN 0004-8038; e-ISSN 1938-4254, meer
Peer reviewed article  

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Trefwoord
    Brak water
Author keywords
    Arctic warming; breeding propensity; climate change; clutch size; fledgling survival; hatchling growth; nest success; phenological mismatch; snowmelt

Auteurs  Top 
  • Nolet, B.A.
  • Schreven, K.H.T.
  • Boom, M.P.
  • Lameris, T.K., meer

Abstract
    Breeding output of geese, measured as the proportion of juveniles in autumn or winter flocks, is lower in years with a late onset of spring in some species, but higher in at least one other species. Here we argue that this is because the timing of spring affects different stages of the reproductive cycle differently in different species. Because the effects on 2 different stages are opposite, the combined effects can result in either a positive or a negative overall effect. These stages are the pre-laying, laying, and nesting phase on the one hand; and the hatchling, fledgling, and juvenile phase on the other hand. The first phase is predominantly positively affected by an early snowmelt, with higher breeding propensity, clutch size, and nest success. The second phase in contrast is negatively affected by early snowmelt because of a mismatch with a nutrient food peak, leading to slow gosling growth and reduced survival. We argue that recognition of this chain of events is crucial when one wants to predict goose productivity and eventually goose population dynamics. In a rapidly warming Arctic, the negative effects of a mismatch might become increasingly important.

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