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Seismic risk and the North Sea
Burton, P.W.; Main, I.G.; Neilson, G. (1983). Seismic risk and the North Sea, in: Ritsema, A.R. et al. (Ed.) Seismicity and seismic risk in the offshore North Sea area: Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop, held at Utrecht, The Netherlands, June 1–4, 1982. NATO ASI Series C: Mathematical and physical sciences, 99: pp. 347-364. hdl.handle.net/10.1007/978-94-009-7046-5_30
In: Ritsema, A.R.; Gürpinar, A. (Ed.) (1983). Seismicity and seismic risk in the offshore North Sea area: Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop, held at Utrecht, The Netherlands, June 1–4, 1982. NATO ASI Series C: Mathematical and Physical Sciences, 99. D. Reidel Publishing: Dordrecht. ISBN 90-277-1529-7. xxiv, 420 pp.
In: NATO ASI Series C: Mathematical and Physical Sciences. D. Reidel: Dordrecht; Boston; Lancaster. ISSN 0258-2023

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  • Burton, P.W.
  • Main, I.G.
  • Neilson, G.

Abstract
    There is considerable scope for improving knowledge pertinent to the assessment of seismic risk in the North Sea, and evaluation of uncertainties on estimates of the contemporary seismic risk is vital. Gumbel III extreme value statistics indicate a 200-year earthquake of magnitude 6.3 ±.5, and an uncertain largest earthquake magnitude a) = 6.7 ± 1.9. Combining these recurrence statistics with attenuation laws shows that the earthquake most likely to be felt at a point at any intensity has magnitude about 6.2, whereas the most perceptible earthquake in terms of ground acceleration is about 5.2: neither intensity nor acceleration alone are sufficient to represent the complete earthquake dynamics of seismic risk. Annual exceedance probabilities at a point corresponding to peak ground acceleration of .05g and.20g are in the ranges 1.11–1.42 x 10-3 and 0.53-1.40 x 10-4 respectively, variations depending on the variety of attenuation laws chosen and focal parameter assumptions, and may be scaled by alternative estimates of the North Sea area km2.

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