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Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures
Steinman, B.A.; Mann, M.E.; Miller, S.K. (2015). Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Science (Wash.) 347(6225): 988-991. http://hdl.handle.net/10.1126/science.1257856
In: Science (Washington). American Association for the Advancement of Science: New York, N.Y. ISSN 0036-8075; e-ISSN 1095-9203, meer
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  • Steinman, B.A.
  • Mann, M.E.
  • Miller, S.K.

Abstract
    The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability for forcing external to Earth’s climate system. To address these issues, we applied a semi-empirical approach that combines climate observations and model simulations to estimate Atlantic- and Pacific-based internal multidecadal variability (termed “AMO” and “PMO,” respectively). Using this method, the AMO and PMO are found to explain a large proportion of internal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures. Competition between modest positive peak in the AMO and a substantially negative trending PMO are seen to produce a slowdown or “false pause” in warming of the past decade.

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