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Indian Ocean Dipole drives malaria resurgence in East African highlands
Hashizume, M.; Chaves, L.F.; Minakawa, N. (2012). Indian Ocean Dipole drives malaria resurgence in East African highlands. NPG Scientific Reports 2(269): 6 pp. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep00269
In: Scientific Reports (Nature Publishing Group). Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 2045-2322; e-ISSN 2045-2322, meer
Peer reviewed article  

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Trefwoorden
    Dipoles; Malaria; East Africa; ISW, Indische Oceaan [Marine Regions]; Marien
Author keywords
    Computational biology; Climate change; Biodiversity; Oceanography

Auteurs  Top 
  • Hashizume, M.
  • Chaves, L.F.
  • Minakawa, N.

Abstract
    Malaria resurgence in African highlands in the 1990s has raised questions about the underlying drivers of the increase in disease incidence including the role of El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, climatic anomalies other than the ENSO are clearly associated with malaria outbreaks in the highlands. Here we show that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction in the Indian Ocean, affected highland malaria re-emergence. Using cross-wavelet coherence analysis, we found four-year long coherent cycles between the malaria time series and the dipole mode index (DMI) in the 1990s in three highland localities. Conversely, we found a less pronounced coherence between malaria and DMI in lowland localities. The highland/lowland contrast can be explained by the effects of mesoscale systems generated by Lake Victoria on its climate basin. Our results support the need to consider IOD as a driving force in the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands.

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