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Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense atlantic hurricanes
Bender, M.A.; Knutson, T.R.; Tuleya, R.E.; Sirutis, J.; Vecchi, G.A.; Garner, S.T.; Held, I.M. (2010). Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense atlantic hurricanes. Science (Wash.) 327(5964): 454-458
In: Science (Washington). American Association for the Advancement of Science: New York, N.Y. ISSN 0036-8075; e-ISSN 1095-9203, meer
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  • Bender, M.A.
  • Knutson, T.R.
  • Tuleya, R.E.
  • Sirutis, J.
  • Vecchi, G.A.
  • Garner, S.T.
  • Held, I.M.

Abstract
    Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20°N.

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